During the early 1990s coverage levels appear to be somewhat
higher than expected, given our model and the behavior of spending
and incomes.During the recession of the early 1990s real income was
falling and health spending was increasing rapidly. Our model suggests
that the percentage uninsured should have been approximately
1.5 percentage points higher than it actually was. It appears
that workers were holding on to coverage at slightly higher levels
than our model predicts. To the extent that changes in the expenditure-
to-income distribution do not perfectly account for the decline
in coverage, what remains to be explained is not why so many
workers were uninsured during the early 1990s but, rather, why
even more workers did not lack coverage.