Fertility
Age-specific fertility rates were estimated and projected for women aged 14 to 54 in five nativity,
race and Hispanic origin groups. These rates are based on birth registration data compiled by the
National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) in conjunction with data from the Census Bureau’s
Intercensal Estimates, Decennial Censuses, and the ACS.
Final birth registration data from NCHS for the years 1990 to 2011 were used as the numerators in
our fertility rates. These data contain demographic information about the mother, including her
race, age at the time of delivery, Hispanic origin, and country of birth.
Because our assumptions are based on historical trends, some adjustments were made to ensure
uniformity in race reporting across the years. In particular, single-race categories consistent with
the 1977 Office of Management and Budget (OMB) standards for data on race and ethnicity were
used, including the superseded category of Asian or Pacific Islander (API). These data were
categorized into four groups of race for the mother – White, Black, American Indian or Alaska
Native (AIAN), and API – and two categories for Hispanic origin –Hispanic and Not Hispanic.
For this series of projections, fertility rates were also assumed to differ depending on the mother’s
country of birth. A dichotomous variable was used to differentiate native mothers, those born in the
United States or in U.S territories, from those born elsewhere. Births to non-residents were
excluded from the series.2
For 2012 and 2013, final birth data from NCHS were not available at the time of production,
however, a preliminary total number of births for each year was available. In order to incorporate
the most recent trends in fertility in the time series for the 2014 National Projections, a short-term