The early and explosive start to the unofficial 2016 presidential campaign in mid-2014 means that the last two years of President Aquino's single six year term will be dominated by manoeuvrings to replace him. The re-opening of these charges and the blanket national coverage of the Senate hearings has caused Binay's sizable early lead over other 2016 presidential hopefuls to drop significantly from 29 per cent in July 2014 to 8 per cent by year end." In comparison, Grace Poe, another presidential hopeful, has seen the 18 per cent gap between her and Binay in July 2014 shrink to only 12 per cent by the end of the year. Binay has not helped himself by refusing to appear in front of the Senate commission to defend himself and challenging Senator Trillanes to a public debate on the issue and then cancelling it at the last minute, thereby reducing his credibility.
The early and explosive start to the campaign also is a sign of the entrenched weakness of the likely Liberal Party candidate, its president Manuel"Mar Roxas, who narrowly lost the 2010 vice-presidential election to Binay. Roxas, scion o another powerful political dynasty, consistently lags far behind Binay in polls and is struggling to achieve double-digit support despite the strong belief that the still popular Aquino will support Roxas' bid. Roxas' claim to the Liberal Party nomination in 2016 is being undermined by his consistent lack of popularity aggravated by his bad handling of super-typhoon Yolanda in late 2013 as the Secretary of the Interior and Local Govemment. Roxas, in a sign of recognition of his own weakness, was the lead spokesperson for a brief flirtation with the idea of seeking a constitutional amendment to allow Aquino to run for a second term There was no public support for this trial balloon just as there was none when President Ramos supporters floated the same idea at the end of his term a decade and a half ago." Neophyte senator a daughter of movie megastar Pernando e for the president Poe Jr., Grace Poe, is now the clear second favou campaign in 2016 despite har repeated demurnog from the idea of running.