Our estimate is likely to understate the cost, for a variety of reasons. First,
Babcock’s estimates of price impacts are on the low end of the 20-40% range suggested
in the literature. And his estimates rise to the level of 21% only in 2009-10, while many researchers estimate 20-40% impacts starting as early as 2007-8 (see, for example,
National Research Council 2011). Because most of these estimates are for biofuels’
contribution to food prices generally, one would expect estimates of the expansion of
corn ethanol on corn prices to be among the larger of biofuel impacts.