It is a peculiar human quality that we are at once fearful of – and fascinated by – change. It is embedded in our social vocabulary, as we often greet a friend with the simple saluta- tion, “What’s new?” Yet it is a liability for forecasters to have too strong a proclivity to see change, for the simple fact is that even in periods of dramatic, rapid transformation, there are vastly more elements that do not change than new things that emerge.