. WRAP UP
covered-senior
We believe that even if the overall yield levels where to rise to more reasonable levels, the yield differential
between covered and senior unsecured bonds will have a hard time to get back to its former level. The change
in investor demand won’t change back over night. If for example a certain fund is set up with a high share of
senior unsecured debt vs a low covered bond share, the fund composition stays the same. The CBPP3 has even
contributed to this situation. On top of the negative net supply, covered bond allocations for regular investors
became even lower due to the high central bank demand forcing them into senior unsecured debt which helps
to keep the yield low. Having said that, after the Eurosystem will stop the CBPP3 in October 2016, the demand
for covered bonds will go down even more. All this points to a very slow normalisation of the yield differentials
between both asset classes.
From an investor’s point of view, covered bonds gain attractiveness compared to senior unsecured debt. By
accepting only a very low yield give up, investors are able to switch into an instrument of much lower risk
and much higher regulatory support. In a low yield environment where every investor is looking for the extra
basis point, this argument might not be relevant, but as yield levels go up, risk return considerations should
become more import.
To sum it up: During the last 18 months the yield differentials between covered bonds and senior unsecured
debt have reached record lows as investors are looking for the extra basis point. The spread stayed relatively
low despite the recent widening in yields especially for shorter maturities. This makes senior unsecured bonds
more attractive from an issuer’s point of view. Despite regulatory developments strongly support covered
bonds, the spread between both asset classes is likely to stay low which in return – especially if yield levels
where to rise again – favour covered bonds in the eye of an investor.