The spatial heterogeneity of vegetation greenness and potential aboveground biomass production for sheep
farminghasbeenassessedforSouthwestGreenland.AMulti-CriteriaEvaluation(MCE)modelwassetuptoiden-
tify biophysical constraints on the present spatial distribution of farms and
fi
elds based on all existing sheep
farms in a detailed study area. Time-integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI) from MODIS and observed temperatures
(2000
–
2012) have been combined with a downscaled regional climate model (HIRHAM5) in order to establish
a spatio-temporal model for future TI-NDVI, thus forecasting the dry biomass production available for sheep
farminginstepsofdecadesforthenext85years.Themodelhasbeenvalidatedagainstobservedbiomassproduc-
tion and the present distribution of
fi
elds. Future biomass production is used to discuss the expansion of current
farms and to identify new suitable areas for sheep farming. Interestingly, new suitable areas are located where
sheep farms were situated during the Norse era more than 1000 years ago; areas which have been abandoned
for the past 500 years. The study highlights the potential of establishing new areas for sheep farming in Arctic
Greenland, where current and future climate changes are markedly ampli
fi
ed compared to global trends. How-
ever, for the study area the MCE model clearly indicates that the potential of expansion relies on contemporary nfrastructural development.