We find that, while there is no doubt that tax policy can
influence economic choices, it is by no means obvious,
on an ex ante basis, that tax rate cuts will ultimately lead
to a larger economy. While the rate cuts would raise the
after-tax return to working, saving, and investing, they
would also raise the after-tax income people receive
from their current level of activities, which lessens their
need to work, save, and invest. The first effect normally
raises economic activity (through so-called substitution
effects), while the second effect normally reduces it
(through so-called income effects). In addition, if they
are not financed by spending cuts, tax cuts will lead
to an increase in federal borrowing, which in turn, will
further reduce long-term growth. The historical evidence
and simulation analysis is consistent with the idea that
tax cuts that are not financed by immediate spending
cuts will have little positive impact on growth. On the
other hand, tax rate cuts financed by immediate cuts in
unproductive spending will raise output.