Hong Kong's small and open economy is inherently vulnerable to events outside its control. As a result, despite not suffering from any of the imbalances that the other crisis-hit economies were showing on the eve of the Asian financial crisis, Hong Kong ended up being one of the worst hit by the turmoil. Real GDP contracted by 5.5% in 1998, and with the territory suffering from six consecutive years of deflation, nominal GDP in Hong Kong did not overtake its pre-crisis level until 2005. Growth in the first five years after the crisis continued to be volatile, with the economy suffering a deep downturn in 2001, after the collapse of the dotcom bubble in the US; the economy also wobbled again briefly in 2003, at the height of the SARS crisis.
However, the past three years have seen a return to sustained, strong economic growth, with real GDP growing by an average of 7.7% in the period 2004-06. The main reason for this strong recovery has been the fast-growing mainland Chinese economy. Booming trade with China has led to a big increase in Hong Kong's re-export trade, and has driven a massive expansion in Hong Kong's container port throughput, as well as air cargo traffic. Looser travel restrictions on Chinese tourists have also provided a significant boost to Hong Kong's hotel, restaurant and retail sectors. Finally, the listing of a number of major Chinese companies in the past two years, including three of China's "Big Four" state-owned banks, has given a significant boost to Hong Kong's important financial-services sector.
Although Hong Kong has recovered strongly from the Asian financial crisis, the openness of the economy means that Hong Kong's prospects will continue to be tied to events elsewhere. Although the territory's closer integration with the mainland economy may have made it less vulnerable to a slowdown in Asian growth, by the same token it has also made Hong Kong more vulnerable to a slowdown in Chinese growth.
From the print edition
Hong Kong's small and open economy is inherently vulnerable to events outside its control. As a result, despite not suffering from any of the imbalances that the other crisis-hit economies were showing on the eve of the Asian financial crisis, Hong Kong ended up being one of the worst hit by the turmoil. Real GDP contracted by 5.5% in 1998, and with the territory suffering from six consecutive years of deflation, nominal GDP in Hong Kong did not overtake its pre-crisis level until 2005. Growth in the first five years after the crisis continued to be volatile, with the economy suffering a deep downturn in 2001, after the collapse of the dotcom bubble in the US; the economy also wobbled again briefly in 2003, at the height of the SARS crisis.However, the past three years have seen a return to sustained, strong economic growth, with real GDP growing by an average of 7.7% in the period 2004-06. The main reason for this strong recovery has been the fast-growing mainland Chinese economy. Booming trade with China has led to a big increase in Hong Kong's re-export trade, and has driven a massive expansion in Hong Kong's container port throughput, as well as air cargo traffic. Looser travel restrictions on Chinese tourists have also provided a significant boost to Hong Kong's hotel, restaurant and retail sectors. Finally, the listing of a number of major Chinese companies in the past two years, including three of China's "Big Four" state-owned banks, has given a significant boost to Hong Kong's important financial-services sector.Although Hong Kong has recovered strongly from the Asian financial crisis, the openness of the economy means that Hong Kong's prospects will continue to be tied to events elsewhere. Although the territory's closer integration with the mainland economy may have made it less vulnerable to a slowdown in Asian growth, by the same token it has also made Hong Kong more vulnerable to a slowdown in Chinese growth.From the print edition
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