The potential bene®t that reducing uncertainty
would yield to those selling carbon credit is illustrated in Fig. 1. If 95% certainty is required, the
credit that can be awarded is C1 under the low
certainty case, but increases to C2 if the level of
certainty is improved The dierence between C2 and
C1 represents a gain that could be achieved by
increasing the quantity and quality of data and
their interpretation. In many cases this may be
more cost eective than investments in expanding
the scale of a given project.
The multiplicative nature of uncertainties as-
sociated with chain calculations means that the
uncertainty of the ®nal result can quickly explode
to very high levels The variance of the pro-
duct of each multiplication can be calculated as: