Who Won or Lost the War of 1812?
Washington had expected the largely American population of Upper Canada to throw off the "British yoke" as soon as its army crossed the border. This did not happen. Lured northwards by free land and low taxes, the settlers wanted to be left alone. Thus the British and Loyalist elite were able to set Canadians on a different course from that of their former enemy. And the growing belief that they, the civilian soldiers, and not the First Nations and British regulars, had won the war - more mythic than real - helped to germinate the seeds of nationalism in the Canadas. Canada owes its present shape to negotiations that grew out of the peace, while the war itself - or the myths created by the war - gave Canadians their first sense of community and laid the foundation for their future nationhood. To this extent the Canadians were the real winners of the War of 1812.
For the Americans, the outcome was more ambiguous. Since the issues of impressment and maritime rights were not dealt with in the peace, that motivation for war could be considered a failure, despite some spectacular victories at sea, which were indicators of the future potential of American power. Also, the war was a failure for the "War Hawks," who coveted the annexation of Canada. This proved not to be militarily feasible. The conclusions that the war was a "second war of independence" or a war of honour and respect are less easy to judge.
If the winners are qualified, the losers are easier to identify. The death of Tecumseh and the defeat of the First Nations at the Battle of the Thames broke apart Tecumseh's confederacy. Similarly, in the related defeat of the Creek Nation, the hope of halting American expansion into First Nations territory effectively ended. While in Canada the First Nations fared better in preserving their land and culture, in the end the British abandoned their Aboriginal allies in the peace, just as they had several times before.