The rebalancing debate has sparked renewed interest
in Japan’s experience since the 1980s. Some argue
that this is a cautionary tale, exemplifying the dangers
of reorienting economies through currency appreciation
(People’s Daily, 2010). Th ey claim that the
appreciation of the yen after the Plaza Accord forced
the authorities to introduce an off setting macroeconomic
stimulus, which then led to an extraordinary
asset price boom followed by an extraordinarily painful
bust. Japan was one of the world’s fastest-growing
economies for three decades but has averaged only
1.1 percent real GDP growth since 1990, while
prices have steadily declined. Consequently, the size
of Japan’s economy today is about the same as in the
early 1990s. Th e sequence of events is clear and striking.
But there are reasons to doubt that it was truly
inevitable, whether the Plaza Accord was really the
direct cause of Japan’s “Lost Decades.”