Carbon prices are poised to rebound from a three-year slump as European Union member states vote today on a plan to reduce a record glut of pollution permits.
The cost of emitting carbon dioxide will jump to 7.75 euros ($10.54) a metric ton by the end of the year, from 4.79 euros today, according to the median of nine analyst and trader estimates compiled by Bloomberg News. Representatives of the EU’s 28 member states will cast their final vote after 2.30 p.m. in Brussels on the plan that would temporarily cut the number of permits by half of the annual supply for the 12,000 power plants and factories in the trading system.
The benchmark contract in Europe’s $52 billion market fell 65 percent in the past three years as contracting economies curbed demand for permits. Cheaper carbon eroded the incentive to burn less fossil fuels and invest in renewable energy. Higher prices may boost costs for Essen, Germany-based RWE AG, which burns coal to generate as much as 48 percent of its power output, while aiding nuclear-power generators including Electricite de France SA and Fortum Oyj.
“At current carbon prices nobody is incentivized to make investments to cut emissions,” said Matteo Mazzoni, an analyst at Bologna, Italy-based Nomisma Energia srl, a consultant which advises energy companies, governments and banks. “Four euros is useless as a price signal.”
Estimates in the Bloomberg News survey ranged from 5 euros to 11 euros, a level last seen in March 2012.
Carbon allowances for delivery in December almost doubled since reaching a record low of 2.46 euros in April on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. Prices rallied as lawmakers reached a compromise on the rescue plan, known as backloading.