Economic conditions in China today resemble those of South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong 30 years ago. Those economies also faced immense pressures to upgrade their industries. Difficulties in China’s labour-intensive manufacturing are a consequence of past success, while difficulties in capital goods manufacturing are partly exacerbated by past policies supporting investment. But the crucial fact is that innovation is taking place and new industries and products are emerging. This is an explosive change.
Chinese policymakers have decided to lower the growth target further to around 7 per cent in 2015, while inflation is predicted to fall below 2 per cent. This should provide more room for policy easing, although the authorities will likely maintain the current practice of mini-stimulus. Fiscal spending should accelerate through the year, with important reallocations of overhead expenditure on social welfare spending. The PBoC has already lowered the reserve requirement ratio and the market expects it to further reduce policy rates.