There is no substitute for an aero engine and the threat of substitutes for air transport itself is minor. However, it is thought that the development of video conferencing capability will reduce some business travel and the growth of high speed train travel (e.g. Eurostar) will affect some travel decisions. However, both of these developments are taking place at a time when the demand for air travel is increasing.
This analysis shows that the commercial aero-engine business is highly competitive, with the buyer possessing and exerting a very powerful influence upon organisations. The high barriers to entry and the low threat of substitutes indicate that existing competitors will continue to share the business between them. However, a slow down in industry growth and the increasing maturity of products will intensify the degree of rivalry between the engine manufacturers.