While the fuel switching option can reduce the GHG emissions better than the energy efficiency option in the beginning, over the long run, the reduction will gradually become less because the total fuel demand increase of this sector has always outstripped that of biofuels supply growth and will continue to be so in the future.
The promotion of biodiesel and bioethanol are expected to lessen by 3.0% the GHG emissions of the BAU scenario in 2012 and will decline dramatically after 2022 because of future biofuels supply limitation in the face of continuing increase in the demand for conventional fossil fuel in road transport.
By 2030, the annual GHG emissions reduction by the fuel switching mitigation option will decline to about 3751 kt of CO2-eq, accounting for 1.8% reduction from the BAU scenario.