A total of 41 studies were included for review. Meta-analytical incidence rates for firsttime
LBPand transition to pain from a pain-free state were similar (~25%), regardless of community or
occupational populations. Risk factors for first-time LBP or transition to LBP from a baseline of a painfree
state were psychosocial and physically related. No consistent risk factor emerged as predictive of
first-time LBP, although prior LBP was a consistent predictor of future incident LBP. Significant heterogeneity
was found across studies in most models, which limits these findings