Although we have mentioned the potential pitfalls in making causal inferences,
we can note how the observed patterns of partial correlation in the aggregate data relate
to theories of the effects of economic development on religiosity. The positive
association between education and church attendance accords with Sacerdote and
Glaeser’s (2001) argument that more educated people have a greater incentive to
participate in group activities, including church services. The positive relation between
education and the religious beliefs is more surprising and, in fact, conflicts with
Sacerdote and Glaeser’s (2001) findings on micro data within countries.
The results on life expectancy and the elderly fraction of the population relate to
Azzi and Ehrenberg’s (1975) theoretical argument that a concern about salvation would
motivate people to participate more in religious activities as they age and, hence, get
closer to death. This theory may explain the negative association between life
expectancy and monthly church attendance but not the positive association between life
expectancy and religious beliefs. The weak results for the old-age fraction may arise
because the increased incentive to attend religious services is offset by high costs of
attendance due to ill health and immobility.
The positive association between the young-age fraction and monthly church
attendance may reflect the relatively low cost of participation for children. Another
consideration is that time spent at formal services is likely to be especially productive in
terms of belief formation at young ages. Moreover, the parents of young children
typically accompany their children at religious services.
Finally, the inverse association between urbanization and church attendance is
consistent with the view that church services have to compete in urban areas with many
other leisure activities, such as museums, theatres, and political organizations. A possible
explanation for this urban/rural pattern is that economies of scale are important for many
social organizations but are less significant for houses of worship. Even sparsely
populated rural towns can sustain a local congregation.