Figure 1A COUNTERFACTUALPATH FOR THEU.S. POLICYRATE. This chartreplicates the counterfactual federal funds rate reported by Taylor (2007). The coun-terfactual path for the policy rate from 1996 to 2007 is obtained with a Taylor ruleof the type:it=rt+pt+1:5(ptp)+0:5(ytyt), wherert, long-run real valueof the federal funds rate, is set to 2 percent,ptis CPI inflation,pis target inflation(assumed at 2 percent),ytis real GDP growth, andytis real potential GDP growth.