This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic variables on Karachi Stock Exchange. Stock market being
a leading indicator of an economy has gained much importance in the modern age. By employing cointegration,
it has been examined that long term relationship exists between stock market and macroeconomic variables. The
industrial production is positively related to the stock market returns (Mehrara, 2006)12. The industrial
production though small portion of Gross Domestic Product indicates the real activity in the country. On the
contrary, inflation is negatively associated to the stock market returns (Pal and Mittal, 2011)13. Pakistan is a
consumption oriented society and people do not go for the investment in the stocks. Risk free rate is negatively
related to the stock market returns (Mukherjee and Naka, 1995)14. T-bills are an easy choice for the people when
the rate of return is high on T-bills. The exchange rate is found to be negatively associated to the stock market
returns (Liu and Shrestha, 2008)15. The depreciation of Pakistani rupee causes the stock returns to be lower and
vice versa. Money supply is found to be negatively related with the stock market returns. The money supply in
Pakistan does not cause economic stimulus and is directly associated with the inflation representing the negative
relationship. The study shows that the selected stock market is reactive to the changes in the macroeconomic
variables in the long run irrespective of high volatility and immaturity.
The selected market has the characteristics of developing market i.e., low liquidity, concentrated
shareholdings, high leverage and low informational and operational efficiency. The study shows that there is an
impact of macroeconomic indicators on the stock market.
The stock returns at specific point in time does not depend on a variable at that time but on the happenings
of past too. It means that the returns are volatile. The economic indicators can be considered as explaining the
stock market behavior.