The simulation results are set out in Tables 11-13. Table 11 considers the impact of altering consumer
behavior without allowing premiums to change in response. The column labeled aseline"
in Table 11A shows the cross-enrollee average of annual premium costs and OOP costs (including
premiums) predicted by our demand model including all frictions.43 The second column (Lowest
Predicted Cost") shows the same simulated costs when every enrollee chooses the plan with the
lowest predicted costs to her in the relevant year; this is the lowest-cost outcome possible. Column
3 shows the average simulated costs from the average of the ve lowest predicted-cost choices for
each enrollee. Column 4 shows costs simulated using the
o inattention" model. In each column,
the row labeled Total" provides cumulative spending per enrollee over the three years 2007-944.
Saving" is the dierence between that cumulative three-year spending and the spending in the
baseline scenario, and \% Fixed" is the proportion of the saving from moving every consumer to
her lowest-cost plan that is achieved by the relevant counterfactual