Haavelmo’s contribution was also important as it constituted the first systematic defence
against Keynes’s (1939) influential criticisms of Tinbergen’s pioneering research on
business cycles and macroeconometric modelling. The objective of Tinbergen’s research
was twofold. Firstly, to show how a macroeconometric model may be constructed and
then used for simulation and policy analysis (Tinbergen, 1937). Secondly, ‘to submit
to statistical test some of the theories which have been put forward regarding the character
and causes of cyclical fluctuations in business activity’ (Tinbergen, 1939, p. 11).
Tinbergen assumed a rather limited role for the econometrician in the process of testing
economic theories, and argued that it was the responsibility of the ‘economist’ to specify
the theories to be tested. He saw the role of the econometrician as a passive one of
estimating the parameters of an economic relation already specified on a priori grounds
by an economist. As far as statistical methods were concerned he employed the regression
method and Frisch’s method of confluence analysis in a complementary fashion.
Although Tinbergen discussed the problems of the determination of time lags, trends,
structural stability and the choice of functional forms, he did not propose any systematic
Haavelmo’s contribution was also important as it constituted the first systematic defence
against Keynes’s (1939) influential criticisms of Tinbergen’s pioneering research on
business cycles and macroeconometric modelling. The objective of Tinbergen’s research
was twofold. Firstly, to show how a macroeconometric model may be constructed and
then used for simulation and policy analysis (Tinbergen, 1937). Secondly, ‘to submit
to statistical test some of the theories which have been put forward regarding the character
and causes of cyclical fluctuations in business activity’ (Tinbergen, 1939, p. 11).
Tinbergen assumed a rather limited role for the econometrician in the process of testing
economic theories, and argued that it was the responsibility of the ‘economist’ to specify
the theories to be tested. He saw the role of the econometrician as a passive one of
estimating the parameters of an economic relation already specified on a priori grounds
by an economist. As far as statistical methods were concerned he employed the regression
method and Frisch’s method of confluence analysis in a complementary fashion.
Although Tinbergen discussed the problems of the determination of time lags, trends,
structural stability and the choice of functional forms, he did not propose any systematic
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