There is also considerable diversity within economies. The regional and urban–rural differences in fertility in the PRC and India are quite substantial. By 2000, more than 500 million Chinese were living in provinces where the estimated total fertility rate was 1.3 or less, a fertility rate similar to Japan’s (National Bureau of Statistics of the PRC and East-West
Center, 2007).
One notable feature of Asia’s demographic transition is its exceptional speed. While the basic picture is the same worldwide, Asia is aging more rapidly than elsewhere, primarily because fertility rates have declined more rapidly than elsewhere. Figure 1.3 illustrates how rapidly Asian economies are aging and how diverse they are. By 2000, the share of the population aged 65 and older had exceeded 15 percent only in Japan, but by 2050 a majority of economies in the region will surpass this level, including a number of low- income ones such as Indonesia, Myanmar, and Viet Nam. India’s elderly population is also expected to be close to 14 percent by 2050. In short, the percentage of elderly people will more than triple between 2000 and 2050 throughout the region. In only two economies
– Japan and the Lao People’s Democratic Republic – will the proportion less than double during this period, while it will more than double in Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Republic of Korea, and actually quadruple in Singapore. This is in stark contrast to the US, which is aging at a relatively slow pace due to a relatively high birth rate, a somewhat shorter life
expectancy, and a high rate of immigration.
The first group of aging societies in Asia – Japan, Republic of Korea, Singapore, and Taipei,China – are all relatively rich, and many of the institutional elements that are important in aging societies are in place. Their governments are stable, relatively efficient, and capable of managing public healthcare systems and pension programs, although even the most advanced Asian economies have encountered difficulties in administering their social security systems effectively. Moreover, the private financial systems in these economies provide a relatively secure economic environment in which workers can accumulate wealth and provide for their own material needs at the end of life.