Humans love to predict the future. Few succeed. Those who come closest do so by
understanding the trends that are driving change. In a meeting of experts convened to
create a “Green Print” to guide the City of Denver, this author stated that there exist
global forces that will drive change that cities must be aware of. As these begin to
impact cities like Denver, they could dramatically shift the metrics by which a Mayor
judges whether a program to save energy is cost effective or not. Mayor John
Hickenlooper answered by recounting his visit to New Orleans a year following
Hurricane Katrina. “It is an awesome experience,” he stated, “for a big city Mayor to
drive for blocks and see no one living in a city. We lost a major American city. The
unthinkable is no longer unthinkable.”
One hurricane is not a trend. But as the impacts of the trend of global warming become
more obvious, Mayor Hickenlooper’s reaction will become more
common. And climate change is only one of the drivers facing us.
This paper discusses some of those drivers. They will bring
change to your community, whether you like it or not. This may
make them seem outside of your control, but if you can understand
the nature of these drivers you can put in place the sorts of
programs that can enable you to cope with them. Understanding
these drivers can also enable you to create new businesses,
reduce costs for existing companies and capture an array of
opportunities that will arise as the future unfolds.