Emerging countries are typically perceived to be susceptible to economic risk and uncertainty to
a greater extent than advanced countries. This risk can originate domestically or internationally,
and is important because, for example, external shocks that impact upon exchange rates create
a ‘fear of floating’ exchange rate regimes in emerging economies (Calvo and Reinhart, 2002).
Generally the nature and source of this risk may have implications for the conduct of monetary
policy in emerging economies.
Given the potential importance of unravelling the nature and source of risk, this paper
empirically analyses the behaviour of the foreign exchange risk premium for emerging European
markets and compares commonalities across countries. Engle (1996) and Chinn (2006) suggest
evidence on Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIRP) is mixed, and deviations from UIRP are an
indication of a risk premium. Bansal and Dahlquist (2000) argue that violations of UIRP are