The Multipolar Economics Race
A postbipolar system is just emerging; no one can be sure how it will work or
if it will last. Its main features seem to be the breakup of the old bipolar blocs into
several blocs, what is called multipolarity. There are at least two additions to the
superpowers, the European Community and a Japanese-led Pacific Rim. East
Europeans don’t obey Russia, and West Europeans and Japanese no longer
automatically accept American leadership. Instead of military confrontation, economic
growth becomes an obsession as countries strive to hold down unemployment, develop
a trade advantage, and move ahead technologically. Fear of falling behind motivates all
the players, especially backward Russia.
The good news about such a system, if it indeed develops, is that the
chances of major war are much reduced. The world relaxes as Russian and U.S. troops
and nuclear weapons pull out of Europe. The zero-sum mentality and struggle for Third
World clients recedes: What good are they? The two powers reach important arms
control agreements and reduce the warheads they have aimed at each other.
The bad news about such a system-already visible-is the murderous
quality of the economic competition. Some players are more efficient than others. They
develop huge trade and capital surpluses and start buying up the weaker players. There
is a constant temptation to turn protectionist, to keep out foreign
products and limit foreign business takeovers. Nasty accusations of trade protectionism
already flow both ways across the Atlantic and the Pacific. What will happen cannot be
foreseen. Much depends on the abilities of politicians to keep the blocs open to foreign
trade. Should they close, trade wars could disrupt the global economy and plunge the
world into a new Great Depression. We are sobered to remember that economic
closure contributed to the coming of World War II.