“The decrease in food prices could mean either that there is decreasing demand or an improvement in supply. But with the current prolonged drought, it is not rational to attribute it to productivity,” Enny said.
According to Enny, the government could boost purchasing power by stabilising food prices and lowering oil prices, as was proposed by President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo last week.
“So, people can save on transportation and buy other things, even though the lower oil price does not necessarily mean that other prices will also go down,” she said.
INDEF economist Imaduddin Abdullah said that the government also needed to take short term actions to quickly boost purchasing power.
“They could intensify various cash transfers. Even though it is more short term, they immediately need additional income,” Imaduddin said.
Direct cash transfers (BLT) had been implemented in previous administrations to aid the poor in times of need. In 2008, after skyrocketing global oil prices caused a significant hike in fuel prices, the government earmarked 41.1 trillion rupiah ($2.78 billion) for distribution to the poor, during which 19.1 million families received monthly cash assistance payments of 100,000 rupiah plus cooking oil and sugar handouts from June 2008 to February 2009.
“In conditions of economic slowdowns such as the one at present, where we cannot expect much from a global economy still racked with uncertainty, quick action is required,” wrote Destry Damayanti, chief economist and executive director of Bank Mandiri’s Mandiri Institute.
Destry also said that direct cash transfers or developing rural facilities and infrastructure would benefit low-income communities with high ratios of consumption to income levels.
“This means that however much money they receive will be spent, as their needs are of a primary nature. In this way, additional demand would be generated which, in turn, would bolster domestic production,” argued Destry.
The government attempted to boost consumer spending in the first policy package by providing incentives to low income people such as accelerating village fund disbursement through cash-for-work programmes as well as providing more rice to the poor and providing fuel converter kits for fishermen.
Meanwhile, the second economic policy package focused more on simplifying licensing procedures and providing a speedier process for business permit issuance, as well as encouraging exporters to park their funds in domestic banks.
The Indonesian Young Entrepreneurs Association (HIPMI) also hoped that the third batch of economic policy would address the demand-side of the economy by increasing purchasing power and employment, such as speeding up labour intensive projects in a number of regions.