example, the uppermost branch of Figure 1 shows a
subject given iv PPI undergoing endoscopic treatment with a probability of .22, failing treatment
with a probability of .07, having a serious rebleed
requiring surgical repair with a probability of .25,
and finally dying with a probability of .12. The conditional probability of a patient dying via this pathway was therefore .000462; the total resource cost
was $86,000, which included one rebleed, one operation with a proportion .64 of suture ligation and
.36 of partial gastrectomy, and 13 hospital days of
endoscopic treatment and surgery.