Can trends in these government programs over time explain trends in poverty rates? Spending on government programs has varied over time, and (for some programs) across states.
Following our analysis of labor market opportunities above, we used the March Current Population Survey to construct the same variables at the state level for 1977–2003, along with several different measures of the generosity of government programs.
We then ran regressions of the poverty rate on these different measures of government spending, including both state and year fixed effects.
Not surprisingly given the relatively small effects of the programs themselves on poverty, we also find that changes in government spending over time explain very little of the trends in poverty rates (Hoynes, Page and Stevens, 2005).
Can trends in these government programs over time explain trends in poverty rates? Spending on government programs has varied over time, and (for some programs) across states. Following our analysis of labor market opportunities above, we used the March Current Population Survey to construct the same variables at the state level for 1977–2003, along with several different measures of the generosity of government programs. We then ran regressions of the poverty rate on these different measures of government spending, including both state and year fixed effects. Not surprisingly given the relatively small effects of the programs themselves on poverty, we also find that changes in government spending over time explain very little of the trends in poverty rates (Hoynes, Page and Stevens, 2005).
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