In this article I consider some of the key features of what has become known as modern epidemiology, and I contrast these with more traditional approaches. I do not intend to present a detailed historical review,1-3 nor to present a comprehensive review of current approaches. Rather, I will focus on some of the key changes in epidemiology over the
past few decades, and I will consider the concepts of causality involved and their ideological and practical consequences. I will argue that the rise of modem epidemiology has been a mixed blessing and that the new paradigm has major shortcomings, both in public health and in scientific terms.4 The recent changes in epidemiologic methodology have not been neutral, but rather (in combination with other influences) they have changed-and have reflected changes in-the way in which epidemiologists think about health and disease.5 The key issue has been the shift in the level of analysis from the population to the individual (S. Wing, Concepts in modem epidemiology: population, risk, dose-response, and confounding, unpublished manuscript). This is typified by the current lack of interest in population factors as causes of disease, the lack of interest in the history of epidemiology, and the lack of integration with other public health activities. I will give particular emphasis to the current neglect of social, economic, cultural, historical, political, and other population factors, and I will refer to these using the general term of "socioeconomic factors." Of course, traditional epidemiology was not a monolith. A wide variety of approaches were used, and there is a danger of setting up caricatures of ideal types. It should also be emphasized that traditional epidemiology gave rise to modern epidemiology; therefore, they have many features in common. Nevertheless, there are some important differences between the traditional and the modern approaches, particularly the loss of the population perspective in recent decades. I therefore will discuss some of the reasons the population perspective has been lost and the implications of this paradigm shift. Then, I will discuss some of the key issues in developing new forms of epidemiology that restore the population perspective while making use of recent methodological advances. (I am tempted to use the term "postmodern epidemiology" to provide a contrast with modern epidemiology and because some postmodernist concepts are relevant to my arguments; however, the use of this
term could imply an uncritical advocacy of postmodernism, which has its own epistemological and practical shortcomings.)
In this article I consider some of the key features of what has become known as modern epidemiology, and I contrast these with more traditional approaches. I do not intend to present a detailed historical review,1-3 nor to present a comprehensive review of current approaches. Rather, I will focus on some of the key changes in epidemiology over thepast few decades, and I will consider the concepts of causality involved and their ideological and practical consequences. I will argue that the rise of modem epidemiology has been a mixed blessing and that the new paradigm has major shortcomings, both in public health and in scientific terms.4 The recent changes in epidemiologic methodology have not been neutral, but rather (in combination with other influences) they have changed-and have reflected changes in-the way in which epidemiologists think about health and disease.5 The key issue has been the shift in the level of analysis from the population to the individual (S. Wing, Concepts in modem epidemiology: population, risk, dose-response, and confounding, unpublished manuscript). This is typified by the current lack of interest in population factors as causes of disease, the lack of interest in the history of epidemiology, and the lack of integration with other public health activities. I will give particular emphasis to the current neglect of social, economic, cultural, historical, political, and other population factors, and I will refer to these using the general term of "socioeconomic factors." Of course, traditional epidemiology was not a monolith. A wide variety of approaches were used, and there is a danger of setting up caricatures of ideal types. It should also be emphasized that traditional epidemiology gave rise to modern epidemiology; therefore, they have many features in common. Nevertheless, there are some important differences between the traditional and the modern approaches, particularly the loss of the population perspective in recent decades. I therefore will discuss some of the reasons the population perspective has been lost and the implications of this paradigm shift. Then, I will discuss some of the key issues in developing new forms of epidemiology that restore the population perspective while making use of recent methodological advances. (I am tempted to use the term "postmodern epidemiology" to provide a contrast with modern epidemiology and because some postmodernist concepts are relevant to my arguments; however, the use of thisterm could imply an uncritical advocacy of postmodernism, which has its own epistemological and practical shortcomings.)
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