Human population and economic activity have remained fairly stable during much of
recorded history. Prior to the Industrial Revolution of the nineteenth century, Europe’s
population grew slowly and standards of living changed little. The advent of the market
economy and rapid technological progress altered this pattern dramatically. Populations
in Europe entered a period of rapid growth that led British classical economist
Thomas Malthus to theorize that populations would outgrow food supplies, keeping
the mass of people perpetually at a subsistence standard of living.
Malthus’s Essay on the Principle of Population as It Affects the Future Improvement
of Society, published in 1798, initiated a long and continuing debate on the impact
of population growth. History has proved the simple Malthusian hypothesis
wrong: both population and living standards in Europe rose rapidly throughout the two
centuries following Malthus’s Essay. But if we consider a more sophisticated argument,
that a growing human population and economic system will eventually outrun its biophysical
support systems, the debate turns out to have strong current relevance.
The controversy over population growth is intimately intertwined with resource
and environmental issues. In the twenty-first century these issues, rather than the simple
race between population and food supply, will strongly affect the course of economic
development. It is unlikely that we will see major shortfalls in food supply on a
global scale. But it is highly likely that the environmental stresses associated with a growing population and rising resource demands will require sweeping changes in the
nature of economic systems.