We have developed a dividend-signalling model that begins to address Fisher Black’s
(1976) dividend puzzle. We demonstrated that the relationship between managerial
incentives, dividend policy and firm value is indeed complex. In our model, dividends
served a dual purpose. They signalled current income, and they affected the firm’s
ability to invest in new projects. We therefore argued that dividends may provide
confusing signals to investors, who may view an increase in dividends favourably,
either as a positive signal of current income (that is dividends reduce asymmetric
information problems), or as a means of mitigating free-cash-flow problems (that is
dividends reduce agency problems). However, a dividend increase may be seen as a
negative signal (the firm lacks growth opportunities), while a dividend cut may be seen
as a positive signal (the firm has significant growth opportunities available).
Our model identified two potential agency problems associated with dividend
policy. First, the manager may cut dividends in order to invest in a negative NPV
project, due to private benefits. Second, the manager may be unwilling to reduce
dividends to take a positive NPV project, since he is concerned with the negative signal
of current income. We suggested that the latter problem may be mitigated by
communication to investors, reinforced by managerial reputation effects.
We believe that our integrated model has provided a springboard for future
theoretical and empirical research into the complex nature of corporate dividend policy.