Severe Tropical Storm MELOR (OWS30N15) near 14.9N 119.8E at 16/1600TST (16/0900UTC) position fair, with estimated maximum winds of 50kt is now moving slowly SSW off the west coast of southern Luzon (Philippines).
STS MELOR remains just inside the Chevron Rig Alert Boundary. STS MELOR should continue to weaken in the South China Sea as it becomes increasingly affected by the strengthening monsoon surge over the northern South China Sea . STS MELOR is expected to continue to move slowly tonight before accelerating southwest over the South China Sea from tonight, with further weakening of intensity through 17th to 19th
In the longer term, three model prognoses suggest that although the system will weaken to below Tropical Depression strength around the 19th, the remnant low pressure system may track through the Gulf of Thailand during the 22nd-23rd. Based on these prognoses, this system remains a potential threat to Chevron operations in the Gulf of Thailand from late 21st.