Sustained long-term growth despite short-term challenges
Russia's economy continues to be the region's largest, accounting in 2014 for nearly 74 percent of GDP in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The economies of Ukraine and Kazakhstan are next in size.
Russia's economic situation challenges short-term aviation growth in the CIS. Russia faces a recession due in part to a global drop in oil prices and severe exchange-rate depreciation. The crisis is expected to last for the next few years before the economy returns to its pre-2014 growth trend.
Following the anticipated recovery, the economies of the CIS are expected to expand, with GDP growing 3.1 percent annually over the next 20 years. Despite current challenges, the commercial aviation outlook for the CIS is one of sustained growth in the long term. The region's size and diverse terrain make airline travel an attractive transportation option that is expected to increase as personal incomes rise.
The CIS has grown airline capacity by more than 9 percent annually over the past 10 years, and Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency reports that the number of passengers that Russia's five largest airlines carry rose to just over 93 million in 2014—an increase of 10.2 percent compared with 2013. Over the next 20 years, CIS airlines are projected to need 1,150 airplanes, valued at $140 billion.