Climatic Factors Throughout the past century, the Gwembe has suffered frequent hunger years because of drought, which has increased in number since the 1970s. Some droughts have persisted for several years, and there have also been shifts in the timing of rainfall, so agricultural decision making has become increasingly problematic. Thus every year is a gamble in which the odds may seem too high for people very much aware that they may lose their investment in the purchase of seed and other inputs such as fertilizer. During the 1980s and early 1990s, droughts led to massive reduction in the size of the lake above the Kariba Dam. As a result, a number of irrigation schemes developed during the years when the lake was at its maximum (around 1963) failed, as pumping water from the lake became uneconomic. On the other hand, shrinkage of the lake provided those living nearby with an unexpected bonus of new land to farm during and after the rains. This allowed them to fallow fields cleared after the 1958 resettlement whose fertility had begun to fall, or to hand these on to relatives while they cultivated the new land gained from the lake. The lake margins also provided excellent pasturage for the growing herds of cattle that are perhaps the Valley’s most important legal source of cash (Colson and Scudder 1988; Scudder and Habarad 1991). In the late 1990s and early 2000s, heavy rainfall in the Zambezi catchment area upstream brought the lake back in flood. The waters rose rapidly over lakeside fields, taking standing crops and sometimes equipment, causing loss of substantial agricultural acreage and pasture. The unpredictability of the lake margins greatly increases the uncertainties of the agricultural livelihoods of many living in Gwembe South, Gwembe Central, and Gwembe North near the lake. Others in Gwembe North who are settled along the Zambezi River have had their fields inundated when the dam gates have been opened either at short or no notice to relieve pressure on the dam during high water periods in the lake. These uncertainties negatively affect people’s evaluation of the desirability of conservation or restoration measures.
229Adaptive Responses to Environmental and Sociopolitical Change in Southern Zambia
The Unpredictability of Zambia’s Political Economy
In addition to climatic factors, farmers are also forced to plan in an environment where government and international donors’ policy decisions are unpredictable and not responsive to local conditions. Agricultural development schemes over the last 40 years have encouraged Gwembe farmers to engage in cash cropping variously cotton, sunflower, maize, or brewing sorghum or some other favored product. However, since the late 1980s the marketing mechanisms for agricultural inputs and products other than cotton have been chaotic. Gwembe Tonga farmers cannot count on the delivery of agricultural supplies or the availability of markets. Even if they can find a buyer, they have no assurance that they will receive their money before inflation wipes out any profit. Payments sometimes lag 6 months or more after the crop has been delivered. Payment for last year’s crop may not pay for this year’s inputs. The inconsistency and changeability of national policies related to rural areas have further contributed to farmers’ difficulties. In the 1950s and 1960s the Gwembe Valley was linked to the Zambian economy by a network of newly built roads that made it possible for people and produce to move freely within the Valley and from the Valley to the towns and markets on the Plateau. After Zambian independence in 1964, credit facilities became available for seeds, fertilizers, and agricultural equipment; transport was available for the movement of crops to market; and local shops were well stocked with consumer goods. This encouraged some to shift from labor migration to cash crops. Indeed this period appeared to be a boom in the local economy, and people hoped for improved living standards. However, with the downturn of the Zambian economy in the mid-1970s, the rural economy suffered. The Gwembe farmers experienced further damages during the Rhodesian war when the Valley was seeded with landmines. The impact of structural adjustment programs imposed in the 1980s and 1990s by international donors, particularly the IMF, exacerbated local economic uncertainty yet further. Roads deteriorated and in some cases vanished. Agricultural inputs were delivered late if at all, and in many areas it became uneconomical for merchants to buy crops because of the bad roads. Prices of food crops were volatile, especially for local producers who had to compete with grain imported from the south or as relief food from overseas. With the exception of cotton, which continued to be handled by a separate government organization until sold in 1994 during Zambia’s privatization program, government schemes for credit along with organization of crop marketing disappeared (Scudder and Colson 19