GOVERNMENT policy is a key mechanism and an effective way to stabilise the market and any industry of the economy. What policies to implement and when are the questions, as they will achieve different impacts.
This year, the residential property business has undoubtedly been affected by the economic slowdown, particularly the middle and lowincome markets, where there has been increased constraints on market affordability.
The recent performance of the stock market has also dampened buyers' sentiment for the high-end market.
The ideal scenario for the property market is to achieve a balance in supply and demand that results in a stable market where there is consistent price growth. In reality, this rarely happens in any market.
With a loose city planning policy and limited financial controls, any market could be faced with an oversupply, particularly following a boom cycle. This exposes the market to the risk of price bubbles.
However, this is not the case in the Bangkok market. The residential market in the capital, particularly the high-end central business district market, has shown consistent price increases on the back of real demand from cash-rich investors.
In the first and second quarters, projects launched in prime locations with good products have been successful. This reaffirms ongoing demand in certain segments and locations. Bangkok has also seen demand from new sources of foreign investors in the region such as China, Hong Kong and Singapore, whose local markets are affected by cooling measures imposed by their governments.
Nevertheless, we have seen evidence of slow sales in many new launch projects in the middle to lowend segments and in projects that are poorly planned and executed.
The real challenge in the present market is the slowdown in sales and the ability of buyers to transfer ownership of units that are expected to be completed this year. The risk is whether speculators who purchased their units two to three years ago with a low down-payment of up to only 10 per cent will default if they are unable to flip them before project completion.
With banks imposing stricter lending policies, it is also a question of whether end-user buyers will be able to secure mortgage loans to transfer. For investors, confidence in the market will be a key factor in deciding whether to move ahead with the transfer.
In a booming market, speculators can resell their units to end-users for a profit within the timeframe for project completion.
Today, with limited affordability and a high rate of loan rejections, the number of potential end-user buyers has been reduced for newly completed units held by these short-term speculators.
This will be the year when the most condominium units are completed in both the downtown and midtown areas - 11,998 and 78,868 units. To stimulate the market by speeding up the transfer of ownership of these units as well as the sales of the remaining, unsold units, some government stimulus policies could be implemented.
A simple measure that can be applied is a reduction in transfer fees, stamp duty and specific business taxes for the units to be completed this and next year. This should be applied across all property types. Registration fees should also be reduced for leasehold properties. In 2008, the use of a similar stimulus policy proved to have substantially aided the market.
Other long-term measures that should also be considered to help stabilise the market and lay down solid fundamentals going forward.Amendments of obsolete laws and loopholes and streamlining grey areas that currently exist whether in taxes or ownership will be the best way to boost investor confidence in the present market situation.
ALIWASSA PATHNADABUTR, managing director of CBRE Thailand