4.2. Risk perceptions and smoking behavior: ordinary least
squares results
Using OLS, male smokers stating smoking is “probably” or “definitely”
linked to lung cancer have a 0.016 higher probability of
having quit smoking in the past two years (Table 3, col. 1), relative
to 0.507 men who smoked in the screener survey, a 3.2 percent
effect. A one-unit increase in the five-point scale risk perception
index leads to a 0.010 increase in the probability of having quit(col.
2). A one-unit increase in the four-count index leads to an increase
in the probability of quitting about as large (0.013, col. 3). Risk perception
parameter estimates are all statistically significant at better
than the 0.01 level in the analysis of quit attempts in the past year
conditional on not actually having quit. The marginal effects of the
risk perception covariates are much larger than their counterparts
in the analysis of smoking cessation in the past two years – over
three times larger and in one specification (col. 4) over six times
larger (0.098/0.016).