4. The regional gas demand growth and its influence on
future trade patterns
Within gas sector, LNG is playing an ever increasing role. Like
all natural gas, LNG is cleaner than coal or oil, and it offers an
opportunity to expand energy supplies. As a result, LNG demand
is forecast to grow more rapidly than for gas, in general, over the
next 10 years. Moreover, according to Sandia (2004) the combination
of higher natural gas prices, rising demand for natural gas
and lower LNG production costs are setting the stage for a
dramatic increase in LNG trade. Estimates are that the worldwide
trade will increase up to 35% by 2012 (Spaulding et al., 2007;
Johnson and Cornwell Johan, 2005). However, according to the
IEA’s 2010 world energy outlook IEA (2010) report, natural gas is
set to play a significant role in meeting the world’s energy
requirements for at least the next two-and-a-half decades. Global
natural gas demand, which fell in 2009 with the economic
recession, is set to start again from 2010. Gas demand increases
by 44% between 2008 and 2035—an average rate of increase of
1.4% per year. It is estimated that growth in natural gas demand
will exceed the growth of other fossil fuels due to its more
favorable environmental and practical attributes, and constraints
on how quickly low-carbon energy technologies can be deployed.
China’s gas demand is growing very fast, accounting for more than
one-fifth of the increase in global gas demand to 2035. In contrast, the
Middle East leads the growth of gas production, its output doubling
by 2035. More than one-third of the global proliferation in gas output
comes from unconventional sources, shale gas, coal bed methane and
tight gas, in the United States and, increasingly, from other regions. A
surplus in global gas-supply capacity, which could peak in 2011, will
keep the pressure on gas exporters to move away from oil price
indexation, notably in Europe.
Further, it is expected that the global coal bed and shale gas
production IEA (2009) report, which at 13 trillion cubic feet (Tcf)
in 2007 contributed 12% of global natural gas supplies, will rise up
to 22 Tcf by 2030, or 15% of global supplies, with most of the
predicted growth coming from North America. These estimates
now appear conservative. Knowledge of international unconventional
resources is extremely limited in most countries, and more
research will be required to find out the location and volume of
accessible supplies.
The status of natural gas and LNG outlook by different regions
are discussed below:
4. The regional gas demand growth and its influence on
future trade patterns
Within gas sector, LNG is playing an ever increasing role. Like
all natural gas, LNG is cleaner than coal or oil, and it offers an
opportunity to expand energy supplies. As a result, LNG demand
is forecast to grow more rapidly than for gas, in general, over the
next 10 years. Moreover, according to Sandia (2004) the combination
of higher natural gas prices, rising demand for natural gas
and lower LNG production costs are setting the stage for a
dramatic increase in LNG trade. Estimates are that the worldwide
trade will increase up to 35% by 2012 (Spaulding et al., 2007;
Johnson and Cornwell Johan, 2005). However, according to the
IEA’s 2010 world energy outlook IEA (2010) report, natural gas is
set to play a significant role in meeting the world’s energy
requirements for at least the next two-and-a-half decades. Global
natural gas demand, which fell in 2009 with the economic
recession, is set to start again from 2010. Gas demand increases
by 44% between 2008 and 2035—an average rate of increase of
1.4% per year. It is estimated that growth in natural gas demand
will exceed the growth of other fossil fuels due to its more
favorable environmental and practical attributes, and constraints
on how quickly low-carbon energy technologies can be deployed.
China’s gas demand is growing very fast, accounting for more than
one-fifth of the increase in global gas demand to 2035. In contrast, the
Middle East leads the growth of gas production, its output doubling
by 2035. More than one-third of the global proliferation in gas output
comes from unconventional sources, shale gas, coal bed methane and
tight gas, in the United States and, increasingly, from other regions. A
surplus in global gas-supply capacity, which could peak in 2011, will
keep the pressure on gas exporters to move away from oil price
indexation, notably in Europe.
Further, it is expected that the global coal bed and shale gas
production IEA (2009) report, which at 13 trillion cubic feet (Tcf)
in 2007 contributed 12% of global natural gas supplies, will rise up
to 22 Tcf by 2030, or 15% of global supplies, with most of the
predicted growth coming from North America. These estimates
now appear conservative. Knowledge of international unconventional
resources is extremely limited in most countries, and more
research will be required to find out the location and volume of
accessible supplies.
The status of natural gas and LNG outlook by different regions
are discussed below:
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