dominance of road transport both for passenger and freight (about 70%), and a significant
increase in aviation (about 20%). Consequently, BAU won’t meet sustainability criteria and
causes large externalities. In contrast, EST would have a more balanced modal split and a
higher share of new mobility for passenger transport (about 50% would be public/private
types). For the movement of freight, the emphasis would be on rail-based or combined transport
(about 60%) and waterborne transport (20%). Overall, passenger transport activity (in
terms of passenger-km) could remain at the present high mobility levels, and the level of
freight activity (in terms of tonne-km) could significantly increase (by more than 50%), provided
this activity is performed with considerably less harmful modes.