The development of fast-breeder nuclear reactors will, in the long term, dramatically improve the utilisation of the uranium. The present nuclear reactors convert only about 1% of uranium’s potential energy into “usable” energy, whereas the fast-breeder reactors will convert almost 100% This vast improvement in utilization will make it economic to use much lower-grade uranium ores, and hence enormously increase the world’s usable reserves.
The points discussed above may well prompt a reassessment of nuclear power as a source of fuel.
Nuclear fusion and mining the moon
Both the old and the new nuclear reactors rely on nuclear fission to generate energy. The really radical innovation would be a move to nuclear fusion. The Culham Science Centre in the UK has been leading research into fusing two isotopes of hydrogen- deuterium and tritium-at temperatures of around 100M degrees in order to produce energy. Clearly, there are practical problems associated with the commercial development of a source of energy which has to operate at such a hight temperature. It is also recognized that there is some radioactive by-product from a reactor using this particular fusion reaction, although it is much less than that produced by and equivalent nuclear fission reactor, and it also has a relatively short half-life of the order of 50 years. Its disposal should therefore present much less of a problem than the radioactive waste generated by existing nuclear power plants.
Research is being carried out in the United States into a different type of fusion reaction, which produces even less radioactive waste, though it operates at an even higher temperature. This is the fusion reaction of helium-3 (an isotope of helium) with deuterium. One problem with this fuel technology is that there are only tint amounts of helium-3 on Earth. However, in their paper “ Astrofuel – An Energy Source for the 21st Century”, J.F. Santarius and G.L. Kulcinski estimate that the moon has about 1m tons of helium-3,enough to meet the world’s primary energy needs for over 1,000 years. How mineral deposits on the moon might be used to generate electricity on Earth is beyond the scope of this book. But it does illustrate that alternative sources of energy are available – even if the technology has not yet been developed to exploit them.
It will be seen from this superficial trawl through technologies that are currently being developed that, except in the very short term, high oil prices should not impede economic growth. Instead, they are likely to encourage research into and investment in new technologies that will allow the catch-up economies to establish a low-cost, low-carbon system of power generation.
The great car economy
What Lady Thatcher once described as the “great car economy” brings enormous benefits to individuals, but for economies as a whole there are significant negative externalities. There are already too many cars in the western world; from the Los Angeles freeway to London’s M25 motorway to the centre of Rome the roads are clogged. Many families run two or even three cars. Growing wealth in countries such as India and China will lead to a dramatic surge in demand for cars. The UN Environmental Programme estimates that there could be 200m new cars-twice the number currently on the road in the United states-if car ownership in India, Indonesia and China reaches the global average. Nowhere is this trend more evident than on the gridlocked roads of Beijing, where car fumes add to the permanent thick smog that hangs over the city. The switch from bicycles to cars as the main means of transport has been so rapid that it has forced one of the country’s largest cycle manufacturers, China Bicycle, into bankruptcy.
Aware of the detrimental environmental impact of moving to a car based economy, the Chinese authorities are planning to limit the damage by introducing a range of quality standards for car engines that will eventually be more exacting than those prevailing in the United States.