Technological aspects of long-term mitigation policies are
receiving renewed attention as current national emission
reduction pledges are not consistent with the reductions
required to meet the 2 °C target in a cost-minimizing way
[10]. Although previous studies have shown that a delay in
climate policy can result in substantial increases in mitigation
costs and even infeasibilities [7,11–16], there exists no single
model inter-comparison study that systematically explores
the role of technology under weak near-term climate policies
that are consistent with what is currently being discussed in
the international climate policy arena.
This study employs AMPERE WP2 scenarios to explore
this research gap [17]. Nine different IAMs with varying
representation of the energy–economy–climate system and
unique strengths participated in this study. All models
use coordinated assumptions about technology availability
and harmonized near- and long-term emission budgets
and population and economic developments to allow for a
comprehensive, relatively robust characterization of the role
of technology in achieving meaningful climate stabilization in
the long term under weak near-term policies. We hypothesize
that weaker-than-optimal near-term actions imply that
subsequent emission mitigation and energy system transformations
will be forced to accelerate in subsequent years with
the responsiveness depending on the available emission
mitigation technology options.
The objective of this study is to investigate what
near-term climate policies may imply for technology deployment
and longer-term emission pathways that achieve the
450 ppm CO2e target1 in 2100 under alternative technology
availability setups. The three sets of research questions
include:
1. How do less-than-optimal near-term emission mitigation
policies affect mid-term and long-term emission mitigation
requirements to achieve an end-of-century goal? How are
the resulting pathways affected by technology availability?
We will examine whether these variables become particularly
sensitive when specific technologies are excluded and