Finally, a major objection to the mismanagement theory is the timing of the damage. Major
dike failures happened in the Ayudhya area on October 6-8, 2012. The contested releases
from Bhumiphol dam, more than 300 km to the north, were October 6-13. A flood wave
from Bhumiphol releases moving south at a rate of about 10 km per day, would take many
weeks to reach the damage areas. If the argument is shifted to Sirikit dam, where necessary
releases in early September could have augmented flood flows in October, then it might be
claimed that releases should have been allowed in say July. Proof that such a change would
have prevented flood damage would have to be based on modelling studies.