Bill Gates: People Don’t Realize Ho

Bill Gates: People Don’t Realize How Many Jobs Will Soon Be Replaced By Software Bots
“Robots and algorithms are getting good at jobs like building cars, writing articles, translating.
Jobs that once required a human. So what will we humans do for work?” Andrew McAfee
As it turns out, when tens of millions of people are unemployed or underemployed, there’s a fair amount of interest in what technology might be doing to the labor force.
And as I look at the conversation, it strikes me that it’s focused on exactly the right topic, and at the same time, it’s missing the point entirely.
The topic that it’s focused on, the question is whether or not all these digital technologies are affecting people’s ability to earn a living, or are the droids taking our jobs? And there’s some evidence that they are.
0:43 The Great Recession ended when American GDP resumed its kind of slow, steady march upward, and some other economic indicators also started to rebound, and they got kind of healthy kind of quickly.
Corporate profits are quite high.
In fact, if you include bank profits, they’re higher than they’ve ever been. And business investment in gear, in equipment and hardware and software is at an all-time high. So the businesses are getting out their checkbooks.
What they’re not really doing is hiring.
So this red line is the employment-to-population ratio, the percentage of working age people in America who have work. And we see that it cratered during the Great Recession, and it hasn’t started to bounce back at all.
1:29 But the story is not just a recession story. The decade that we’ve just been through had relatively anemic job growth all throughout, especially when we compare it to other decades, and the 2000s are the only time we have on record where there were fewer people working at the end of the decade than at the beginning.
This is not what you want to see. When you graph the number of potential employees versus the number of jobs in the country, you see the gap gets bigger and bigger over time, and then, during the Great Recession, it opened up in a huge way. I did some quick calculations.
I took the last 20 years of GDP growth and the last 20 years of labor productivity growth and used those in a fairly straightforward way to try to project how many jobs the economy was going to need to keep growing, and this is the line that I came up with. Is that good or bad?
This is the government’s projection for the working age population going forward. So if these predictions are accurate, that gap is not going to close.
2:32 The problem is, I don’t think these projections are accurate. In particular, I think my projection is way too optimistic, because when I did it, I was assuming that the future was kind of going to look like the past with labor productivity growth, and that’s actually not what I believe.
When I look around, I think that we ain’t seen nothing yet when it comes to technology’s impact on the labor force. Just in the past couple years, we’ve seen digital tools display skills and abilities that they never, ever had before, and that, kind of, eat deeply into what we human beings do for a living. Let me give you a couple examples.
3:10 Throughout all of history, if you wanted something translated from one language into another, you had to involve a human being. Now we have multi-language, instantaneous, automatic translation services available for free via many of our devices all the way down to smartphones. And if any of us have used these, we know that they’re not perfect, but they’re decent.
3:34 Throughout all of history, if you wanted something written, a report or an article, you had to involve a person. Not anymore. This is an article that appeared in Forbes online a while back about Apple’s earnings. It was written by an algorithm. And it’s not decent, it’s perfect.
3:51 A lot of people look at this and they say, “Okay, but those are very specific, narrow tasks, and most knowledge workers are actually generalists, and what they do is sit on top of a very large body of expertise and knowledge and they use that to react on the fly to kind of unpredictable demands, and that’s very, very hard to automate.”
One of the most impressive knowledge workers in recent memory is a guy named Ken Jennings. He won the quiz show “Jeopardy!” 74 times in a row, took home three million dollars. That’s Ken on the right getting beat three to one by Watson, the “Jeopardy!”-playing supercomputer from IBM.
When we look at what technology can do to general knowledge workers, I start to think there might not be something so special about this idea of a generalist, particularly when we start doing things like hooking Siri up to Watson and having technologies that can understand what we’re saying and repeat speech back to us.
Now, Siri is far from perfect, and we can make fun of her flaws, but we should also keep in mind that if technologies like Siri and Watson improve along a Moore’s Law trajectory, which they will, in six years, they’re not going to be two times better or four times better, they’ll be 16 times better than they are right now. So I start to think that a lot of knowledge work is going to be affected by this.
5:12 And digital technologies are not just impacting knowledge work.
They’re starting to flex their muscles in the physical world as well. I had the chance a little while back to ride in the Google autonomous car, which is as cool as it sounds. (Laughter) And I will vouch that it handled the stop-and-go traffic on U.S. 101 very smoothly.
There are about three and a half million people who drive trucks for a living in the United States. I think some of them are going to be affected by this technology. And right now, humanoid robots are still incredibly primitive. They can’t do very much. But they’re getting better quite quickly, and DARPA, which is the investment arm of the Defense Department, is trying to accelerate their trajectory.
5:54 The droids are coming for our jobs.
In the short term, we can stimulate job growth by encouraging entrepreneurship and by investing in infrastructure, because the robots today still aren’t very good at fixing bridges. But in the not-too-long-term, I think within the lifetimes of most of the people in this room, we’re going to transition into an economy that is very productive but that just doesn’t need a lot of human workers, and managing that transition is going to be the greatest challenge that our society faces. Voltaire summarized why. He said, “Work saves us from three great evils: boredom, vice and need.”
6:36 But despite this challenge, I’m personally, I’m still a huge digital optimist, and I am supremely confident that the digital technologies that we’re developing now are going to take us into a utopian future, not a dystopian future. And to explain why, I want to pose kind of a ridiculously broad question. I want to ask what have been the most important developments in human history?
6:58 Now, I want to share some of the answers that I’ve gotten in response to this question. It’s a wonderful question to ask and to start an endless debate about, because some people are going to bring up systems of philosophy in both the West and the East that have changed how a lot of people think about the world.
And then other people will say, “No, actually, the big stories, the big developments are the founding of the world’s major religions, which have changed civilizations and have changed and influenced how countless people are living their lives.”
And then some other folk will say, “Actually, what changes civilizations, what modifies them and what changes people’s lives are empires, so the great developments in human history are stories of conquest and of war.”
And then some cheery soul usually always pipes up and says, “Hey, don’t forget about plagues.”
There are some optimistic answers to this question, so some people will bring up the Age of Exploration and the opening up of the world.
Others will talk about intellectual achievements in disciplines like math that have helped us get a better handle on the world, and other folk will talk about periods when there was a deep flourishing of the arts and sciences.
So this debate will go on and on. It’s an endless debate, and there’s no conclusive, no single answer to it.
But if you’re a geek like me, you say, “Well, what do the data say?”
And you start to do things like graph things that we might be interested in, the total worldwide population, for example, or some measure of social development, or the state of advancement of a society, and you start to plot the data, because, by this approach, the big stories, the big developments in human history, are the ones that will bend these curves a lot.
8:39 So when you do this, and when you plot the data, you pretty quickly come to some weird conclusions.
You conclude that none of these things have mattered very much.
They haven’t done a darn thing to the curves. There has been one story, one development in human history that bent the curve, bent it just about 90 degrees, and it is a technology story.
9:06 The steam engine, and the other associated technologies of the Industrial Revolution changed the world and influenced human history so much, that in the words of the historian Ian Morris, they made mockery out of all that had come before. (Anything that increase power?)
And they did this by infinitely multiplying the power of our muscles, overcoming the limitations of our muscles. Now, what we’re in the middle of now is overcoming the limitations of our individual brains and infinitely multiplying our mental power. (Our individual mental power or the multinational knowledge power?)
How can this not be as big a deal as overcoming the limitations of our muscles?
So at the risk of repeating myself a little bit, when I look at what’s going on with digital technology these days, we are not anywhere near through with

ผลลัพธ์ (ไทย) 1:

บิลเกตส์: คนไม่รู้กี่งานเร็ว ๆ นี้จะถูกแทนที่ ด้วยซอฟต์แวร์บอ"หุ่นยนต์และอัลกอริทึมเป็นการดีที่งานเช่นอาคารรถยนต์ เขียนบทความ แปลงานว่าต้องการมนุษย์ ดังนั้น จะมนุษย์เราอย่างไรสำหรับการทำงาน" แอนดรู McAfeeเป็นมันเปิดออก เมื่อหลายสิบล้านคนเป็นคนตกงาน หรือ underemployed มีความสนใจในเทคโนโลยีใดอาจจะทำการบังคับใช้แรงงานสมควรและฉันมองไปที่การสนทนา มันนัดผมที่ได้เน้นตรงหัวข้อด้านขวา และในเวลาเดียวกัน มันไม่มีจุดทั้งหมดหัวข้อที่ความ คำถามที่เป็นหรือไม่เทคโนโลยีดิจิทัลทั้งหมดเหล่านี้จะส่งผลกระทบต่อความสามารถของคนกิน หรือมี droids การทำงานของเราหรือไม่ และบางหลักฐานที่จะ0:43 ถดถอยดีสิ้นสุดลงเมื่อ GDP สหรัฐอเมริกาดำเนินต่อชนิดของช้า steady มีนาคมขึ้น บางชี้เศรษฐกิจยังเริ่มที่จะฟื้นตัว และพวกเขามีชนิดของสุขภาพได้อย่างรวดเร็วของการผลกำไรของบริษัทค่อนข้างสูงในความเป็นจริง ถ้าคุณรวมผลกำไรของธนาคาร จะสูงกว่าพวกเขาได้เคย และธุรกิจการลงทุนในเกียร์ ในอุปกรณ์ฮาร์ดแวร์ และซอฟต์แวร์เป็นที่สูงมีสรุป ดังนั้น ธุรกิจจะได้รับออก checkbooks ของพวกเขาพวกเขากำลังจริง ๆ ไม่ทำอะไรเป็นการจ้างงานดังนั้น เส้นสีแดงนี้มีอัตราการจ้างงานประชากร เปอร์เซ็นต์ทำงานอายุคนในอเมริกาที่มีงาน และเราเห็นว่า มัน cratered ในช่วงภาวะถดถอยที่ดี และมันไม่เริ่มที่จะย้อนกลับเลย1:29 แต่เรื่องราวไม่ใช่เพียงเรื่องภาวะเศรษฐกิจถดถอย ทศวรรษที่เราเพิ่งผ่านมีงานโรคโลหิตจางค่อนข้างเจริญเติบโตทั้งหมดตลอด โดยเฉพาะอย่างยิ่งเมื่อเราเปรียบเทียบทศวรรษอื่น ๆ และ 2000s เป็นเวลาที่เรามีในระเบียนมีคนน้อยทำงานที่จุดสิ้นสุดของทศวรรษกว่าที่จุดเริ่มต้นไม่ว่าคุณจะดูได้ เมื่อคุณกราฟจำนวนพนักงานที่มีศักยภาพเทียบงานในประเทศ คุณดูได้รับช่องว่างใหญ่ และขนาดใหญ่กว่าเวลา แล้ว ในช่วงภาวะถดถอยที่ดี มันเปิดขึ้นในทางใหญ่ ผมได้คำนวณบางอย่างรวดเร็วฉันใช้เวลา 20 ปีที่ผ่านมาของการเติบโต GDP และ 20 ปีที่ผ่านมาของการเติบโตของผลิตภาพแรงงาน และใช้ในวิธีค่อนข้างตรงไปตรงมาลองเพื่อโครงการจำนวนงานเศรษฐกิจเกิดขึ้นต้องให้เติบโต และนี้คือรายการที่ฉันมากับ จะว่าดี หรือไม่ดีนี่คือการคาดการณ์ของรัฐบาลสำหรับประชากรวัยทำงานที่ก้าวไปข้างหน้า ดังนั้น ถ้าการคาดคะเนนี้ถูกต้อง ช่องว่างที่ไม่ได้ไปปิด2:32 ปัญหาคือ ฉันไม่คิดว่า ประมาณนี้ไม่ถูกต้อง โดยเฉพาะ ฉันคิดว่า ฉันฉายเป็นไปในเชิงบวก เพราะเมื่อฉันทำมัน ผมสมมติว่าอนาคตของไปเหมือนผ่านมา มีการเติบโตของผลิตภาพแรงงาน และที่เป็นจริง ไม่ว่าผมWhen I look around, I think that we ain’t seen nothing yet when it comes to technology’s impact on the labor force. Just in the past couple years, we’ve seen digital tools display skills and abilities that they never, ever had before, and that, kind of, eat deeply into what we human beings do for a living. Let me give you a couple examples.3:10 Throughout all of history, if you wanted something translated from one language into another, you had to involve a human being. Now we have multi-language, instantaneous, automatic translation services available for free via many of our devices all the way down to smartphones. And if any of us have used these, we know that they’re not perfect, but they’re decent.3:34 Throughout all of history, if you wanted something written, a report or an article, you had to involve a person. Not anymore. This is an article that appeared in Forbes online a while back about Apple’s earnings. It was written by an algorithm. And it’s not decent, it’s perfect.3:51 A lot of people look at this and they say, “Okay, but those are very specific, narrow tasks, and most knowledge workers are actually generalists, and what they do is sit on top of a very large body of expertise and knowledge and they use that to react on the fly to kind of unpredictable demands, and that’s very, very hard to automate.”One of the most impressive knowledge workers in recent memory is a guy named Ken Jennings. He won the quiz show “Jeopardy!” 74 times in a row, took home three million dollars. That’s Ken on the right getting beat three to one by Watson, the “Jeopardy!”-playing supercomputer from IBM.When we look at what technology can do to general knowledge workers, I start to think there might not be something so special about this idea of a generalist, particularly when we start doing things like hooking Siri up to Watson and having technologies that can understand what we’re saying and repeat speech back to us.Now, Siri is far from perfect, and we can make fun of her flaws, but we should also keep in mind that if technologies like Siri and Watson improve along a Moore’s Law trajectory, which they will, in six years, they’re not going to be two times better or four times better, they’ll be 16 times better than they are right now. So I start to think that a lot of knowledge work is going to be affected by this.5:12 And digital technologies are not just impacting knowledge work.They’re starting to flex their muscles in the physical world as well. I had the chance a little while back to ride in the Google autonomous car, which is as cool as it sounds. (Laughter) And I will vouch that it handled the stop-and-go traffic on U.S. 101 very smoothly.There are about three and a half million people who drive trucks for a living in the United States. I think some of them are going to be affected by this technology. And right now, humanoid robots are still incredibly primitive. They can’t do very much. But they’re getting better quite quickly, and DARPA, which is the investment arm of the Defense Department, is trying to accelerate their trajectory.5:54 The droids are coming for our jobs.In the short term, we can stimulate job growth by encouraging entrepreneurship and by investing in infrastructure, because the robots today still aren’t very good at fixing bridges. But in the not-too-long-term, I think within the lifetimes of most of the people in this room, we’re going to transition into an economy that is very productive but that just doesn’t need a lot of human workers, and managing that transition is going to be the greatest challenge that our society faces. Voltaire summarized why. He said, “Work saves us from three great evils: boredom, vice and need.”6:36 But despite this challenge, I’m personally, I’m still a huge digital optimist, and I am supremely confident that the digital technologies that we’re developing now are going to take us into a utopian future, not a dystopian future. And to explain why, I want to pose kind of a ridiculously broad question. I want to ask what have been the most important developments in human history?6:58 Now, I want to share some of the answers that I’ve gotten in response to this question. It’s a wonderful question to ask and to start an endless debate about, because some people are going to bring up systems of philosophy in both the West and the East that have changed how a lot of people think about the world.
And then other people will say, “No, actually, the big stories, the big developments are the founding of the world’s major religions, which have changed civilizations and have changed and influenced how countless people are living their lives.”
And then some other folk will say, “Actually, what changes civilizations, what modifies them and what changes people’s lives are empires, so the great developments in human history are stories of conquest and of war.”
And then some cheery soul usually always pipes up and says, “Hey, don’t forget about plagues.”
There are some optimistic answers to this question, so some people will bring up the Age of Exploration and the opening up of the world.
Others will talk about intellectual achievements in disciplines like math that have helped us get a better handle on the world, and other folk will talk about periods when there was a deep flourishing of the arts and sciences.
So this debate will go on and on. It’s an endless debate, and there’s no conclusive, no single answer to it.
But if you’re a geek like me, you say, “Well, what do the data say?”
And you start to do things like graph things that we might be interested in, the total worldwide population, for example, or some measure of social development, or the state of advancement of a society, and you start to plot the data, because, by this approach, the big stories, the big developments in human history, are the ones that will bend these curves a lot.
8:39 So when you do this, and when you plot the data, you pretty quickly come to some weird conclusions.
You conclude that none of these things have mattered very much.
They haven’t done a darn thing to the curves. There has been one story, one development in human history that bent the curve, bent it just about 90 degrees, and it is a technology story.
9:06 The steam engine, and the other associated technologies of the Industrial Revolution changed the world and influenced human history so much, that in the words of the historian Ian Morris, they made mockery out of all that had come before. (Anything that increase power?)
And they did this by infinitely multiplying the power of our muscles, overcoming the limitations of our muscles. Now, what we’re in the middle of now is overcoming the limitations of our individual brains and infinitely multiplying our mental power. (Our individual mental power or the multinational knowledge power?)
How can this not be as big a deal as overcoming the limitations of our muscles?
So at the risk of repeating myself a little bit, when I look at what’s going on with digital technology these days, we are not anywhere near through with

ผลลัพธ์ (ไทย) 3:

บิลเกตส์ : คนไม่ตระหนักถึงวิธีการหลายงาน เร็ว ๆนี้จะถูกแทนที่ด้วยโปรแกรมบอท
" หุ่นยนต์ และ ชุดเก่งที่งานเหมือนอาคารรถยนต์ , เขียนบทความ , แปล .
งานเมื่อต้องการมนุษย์ แล้วเรามนุษย์ทำงาน ? " Andrew McAfee
ปรากฏว่าเมื่อหลายสิบล้านคนว่างงานหรือธัญพืชมีจำนวนเงินที่ยุติธรรมของความสนใจในเทคโนโลยีที่อาจจะทำให้แรงงาน .
และเท่าที่ผมดู การสนทนาก็นัดผมว่ามันเน้นหัวข้อถูกต้องทุกประการ และในเวลาเดียวกัน มันก็หายไปจากจุดทั้งหมด .
หัวข้อ ว่า มัน เน้น คำถาม หรือไม่ทั้งหมดเหล่านี้เทคโนโลยีดิจิตอลจะมีผลต่อประชาชนสามารถหาเลี้ยงตัวหรือหุ่น ใช้งานของเรา มีหลักฐานบางอย่างที่พวกเขาจะ .
0:43 เศรษฐกิจที่ดีสิ้นสุดเมื่อชาวอเมริกัน GDP ต่อชนิดของช้า มั่นคง เดือนขึ้นไป และตัวชี้วัดทางเศรษฐกิจอื่น ๆบาง ยังเริ่มที่จะฟื้นตัว และพวกเขาได้รับชนิดของสุขภาพชนิดของผลกำไรของ บริษัท ได้อย่างรวดเร็ว

ค่อนข้างสูง ในความเป็นจริงถ้าคุณรวมกำไรของธนาคารพวกเขากำลังมากขึ้นกว่าที่พวกเขาเคยเป็นการลงทุนและธุรกิจในเกียร์ , อุปกรณ์และฮาร์ดแวร์และซอฟต์แวร์อยู่ที่ทุกเวลาสูง ดังนั้นธุรกิจจะได้รับสมุดเช็คของพวกเขา สิ่งที่พวกเขาไม่ได้จริงๆ

ทำ เช่า ดังนั้น เส้นสีแดงนี้คือการจ้างงานต่อประชากร ร้อยละของวัยทํางานในอเมริกาที่ต้องทำงาน และเราเห็นว่ามัน cratered ในช่วงเศรษฐกิจดีและมันยังไม่เริ่มที่จะกลับมาเลย .
1 : 29 แต่เรื่องราวไม่ได้เป็นเพียงยุโรปเรื่อง ทศวรรษที่เราเพิ่งผ่านมีการเติบโตของงานค่อนข้าง ) ตลอด โดยเฉพาะอย่างยิ่งเมื่อเราเปรียบเทียบกับทศวรรษ อื่น ๆ , และ 2000 เป็นครั้งแรกที่เรามีในบันทึกที่ได้มีน้อยคนที่ทำงานในตอนท้ายของทศวรรษกว่าตั้งแต่แรก