suddenly grew more conadent that their horse would win.16 The simple act of committing to a decision altered their assessment of the probability of success. A series of subsequent studies replicated the same phenomenon in widely dif- ferent circumstances, triggering a major research program in psychology. To explain the remarkable switch in people’s cognitive processing before and af- ter making a decision, psychologists Heinz Heckhausen and Peter Gollwitzer proposed the “Rubicon model of action phases,” named after Caesar’s fateful choice of 49 b.c.17
The Rubicon model posits that the decisionmaking process follows a se- ries of distinct stages, each of which activates a particular mind-set, or cogni- tive orientation. A “deliberative” mind-set dominates the predecisional phase, when options and possible outcomes are weighed and compared. An “imple- mental” mind-set dominates the postdecisional phase, when the focus shifts to