Aviation is one of the critical modes of our national transportation system. As such, it is essential
that new technologies be continually developed to ensure that a safe mode of transportation
becomes even safer in the future. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is managing the
development of new technologies and interventions aimed at reducing the fatal aviation accident
rate by a factor of 5 by year 2007 and by a factor of 10 by year 2022. A portfolio assessment is
currently being conducted to determine the projected impact that the new technologies and/or
interventions may have on reducing aviation safety system risk. This paper reports on advanced
risk analytics that combine the use of a human error taxonomy, probabilistic Bayesian Belief
Networks, and case-based scenarios to assess a relative risk intensity metric. A sample case is
used for illustrative purposes