In order for a short-Range prediction scheme to warrant General acceptance, it must be both accurate and reliable. Thus, it must have a small range of uncertainty in regard to location and timing, and it must produce few failures or false alarms. Can you imagine the debate that would precede an order to evacuate a large city in the United States, such as Los Angeles or San Francisco? The cost of evacuating millions of people, arranging for living accommodations, and providing for their lost work time and wages would be staggering.