The model shows that the past growth of international tourism maywell continue unabated in the
medium to long term. The main driver is economic growth, and the growth of international tourism will therefore be concentrated in those regions with the highest economic growth; had we used a higher income elasticity, this conclusion would have been even stronger. Although intercontinental tourism will also grow, mass tourism is likelyto continue to prefer destinations closer to home. Uncertainties about future population and economic growth, and uncertainties about elasticities and future travel costs make the projections of international tourist numbers veryuncertain.