Two major but not unrelated variables seem to be very important in deter- mining the fate of any given movement: the relative “realism” of the doctrine; and the amount of force exerted against the organization by its opponents, “Realism” is a difficult concept to define without invoking the concept of success or failure, and unless it can be so defined, is of no use as a variable explanatory of success or failure. Nor can one use the criterion of conventionality of perception,