Having a specific question in mind provides focus when examining possible futures, and therefore the identification of a clear focal issue is the first and arguably the most important stage in scenario planning. Here, the focal issue was uncertainty in dynamics of effort allocation in the Indian Ocean tuna purse seine fishery. These dynamics include two short term skipper-level behaviours; the allocation of effort in space and the allocation of effort between the two main fishing practices (fishing on free-swimming schools or floating objects), and two long term company-level behaviours; investment in fishing capacity and participation in the fishery.