The primary concern in generating capacity adequacy
evaluation is to assess the capability of the generation
facilities to satisfy the total load demand [6]. In a
chronological Monte Carlo simulation approach, the capacity
model is the available system capacity at points in time
established sequentially, taking into account random unit
failures. The load model is a chronological hourly load
profile. The available system reserve at a point in time is the
difference between the available capacity and the load. A
negative margin denotes a load loss situation. The system
reliability indices can be obtained by observing the available
system reserve profile over a sufficiently long period of time.
If a new power plant, is added to this system, there is a
certain chance that costumers do not have to be disconnected
so often, since the installed capacity of the system increases.
This implies that the reliability of the system increases, as a
result of the new power plant. The basic reliability index
calculated and used in this paper is the LOLE. An estimate of
the LOLE for a number of sample years (N) can be obtained
using Equation